You’ve seen the headlines. From tightening immigration rules and escalating trade wars to ever-shifting political climates, travel to the U.S. has become more complicated and less appealing for many international tourists.
Kristin Winkaffe, founder of Winkaffe Global Travel, summarized the situation succinctly: “From immigration rules to trade wars, these changes will make travel to and within the U.S. a lot more complicated and way less appealing. It’s like putting up a giant ‘Do not enter’ sign just as the world is getting back into full travel mode.”
The Impact of Politics and Trade Wars
One of the most significant factors influencing international travel to the U.S. in 2025 is the current political landscape. The White House's escalating trade wars with key U.S. trading partners—Canada, China, Mexico and the European Union—have raised tensions and could significantly impact foreign tourism.
A report by Tourism Economics projects a 5% drop in international travel to the U.S. this year as a result of these growing tensions. Tariffs, particularly those on imported goods and services, have a potential long-term impact on the travel industry, driving up costs for hotels, airlines and cruise ships.
Moreover, tariffs could also affect leisure activities, as the increased prices for imported goods—such as beverages—could raise the cost of dining and nightlife experiences in the U.S., further dampening the appeal for foreign tourists.
Visa and Immigration Complications
On April 1, many countries, including Germany and the UK, issued travel warnings advising their citizens to exercise caution when considering travel to the U.S., citing concerns about gender identification, visa complications, and heightened border scrutiny. These concerns are compounded by the fact that visa processing times have increased dramatically, making it more challenging for foreign nationals to secure a U.S. visa.
The visa process is already a bottleneck for many potential travelers, with long wait times and heightened scrutiny adding to the frustration. This is especially true for travelers from countries like Canada, where wait times for visas can be prohibitively long.
Canada: A Sharp Decline in Travel to the U.S.
The U.S. is facing a particularly steep decline in visitors from Canada, its number one source of international tourism. According to Tourism Economics, Canadian visits to the U.S. are expected to drop by a staggering 15% in 2025. This sharp decline is reflected in the actions of airlines: United Airlines is reducing routes, citing a dramatic drop in Canadian travelers to the U.S. Other carriers like WestJet and Flair have also slashed U.S.-bound routes due to decreased demand.
Experts attribute this decline to several factors, including unfavorable currency exchange rates, trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada and the political climate under Trump. The long wait times for visas and the detainment of individuals with valid U.S. visas have also led to a sense of unease among Canadian travelers.
The United Kingdom: Mixed Sentiment
In the UK, travel to the U.S. remains a topic of mixed sentiment. While it is too early to assess the full impact of the U.S. government's tariffs on travel from the UK and Ireland, the current political climate has already caused a dip in favorability. According to recent data, only 37% of people in the UK now have a favorable view of the U.S., down from previous years.
But there are signs that travel interest from UK tourists remains strong, with searches for U.S. flights and bookings for events like the 2025 FIFA World Cup remaining favorable. But with global tariffs and economic uncertainty on the horizon, the long-term impact on U.S. tourism remains unclear.
France and Germany: More Mixed Outlooks
France and Germany, two of the U.S.’s largest European markets, are showing signs of slowing travel to the U.S., though not at the same rate as Canada. A new travel guideline that requires travelers to declare their gender assigned at birth when applying for a U.S. visa or ESTA has led to concerns about increased scrutiny at the border. These factors, combined with a recent 3.9% drop in travelers from France to the U.S., suggest that political developments are having an impact.
In Germany, while bookings for summer 2025 are on par with or slightly above last year’s levels, there is a noticeable decline in inquiries for autumn, suggesting that travelers may be hesitating due to political and economic uncertainties. Nevertheless, tour operators note that cancellations due to political developments are rare, and there is still strong demand for U.S. destinations in the summer.
Looking Ahead
Despite these ongoing and unpredictable challenges, there are still reasons to be optimistic about international travel to the U.S. in 2025. While the political climate and trade tensions have undoubtedly affected sentiment in key markets, the U.S. remains an iconic destination for travelers from all over the world. Tour operators report strong bookings in certain countries, and the promise of major events like the FIFA World Cup and the U.S.’s Bicentennial in 2026 will continue to attract visitors.
Meanwhile, U.S. travelers are still planning on traveling in the upcoming months. A recent survey from MMGY found that more than 8 in 10 U.S. consumers are maintaining their leisure travel schedule in 2025. There’s an opportunity for destinations and hotels to make up for the lack of international travel by catering to domestic travelers who want to explore their own backyards.
This post was developed in collaboration with partner agencies in international markets: Cellet Marketing and PR Ltd (UK), Faulhaber (Canada), and Travel Marketing Romberg (Europe) to gather data and insights.
Malcolm Griffiths : April 11, 2024